Terms of Reference: Consultancy Services for the Development of Shock Responsive Safety Net System for Kenya – Strathmore University

1.0 PURPOSE

The purpose of these terms of reference is to provide technical assistance to support the National Drought Management Authority and its partners to design a Shock Responsive Safety Net System for Kenya.

These Terms of Reference describe the rationale for and challenge that a Shock Responsive Safety Net System will address, background and key assumptions informing the design, the design process, along with a detailed scope of work that includes indicative tasks and issues to be addressed, and skill sets that will likely be needed during the design process.

2.0 RATIONALE AND CHALLENGE

Kenya is just recovering from a protracted drought following five consecutive failed rainfall seasons. Over the past five years Kenya has been buffeted by exogenously induced shocks, including drought, desert locust invasion, rift valley fever, inflation, and Covid 19. Each of these shocks have wreaked havoc on the lives and livelihoods of millions of people churning at or near the poverty line and put significant stress on strained humanitarian resources and capacity to deliver services. For example, the 2021-2023 drought alone saw the devastation of livelihoods in affected communities, and the loss of an estimated 2.6 million livestock, worth about Ksh 1.8 billion to Kenya’s economy. The Government of Kenya has significantly strengthened its humanitarian response capabilities, but it currently does not have the financial resources or fiscal space to both meet existing assistance needs and to address humanitarian vulnerability resulting proactively and systematically from shock impacts.

At present Kenya has a safety net, The Hunger Safety Net, which plays an essential role in targeting and delivering assistance for the indigent, non-productive households and individuals that are permanently in need of social assistance. This program is designed to provide sustained, predictable assistance to a carefully identified set of vulnerable participant households in selected geographic areas. It aims to address the impacts of chronic poverty and is not designed to respond to the emergency needs of households and communities during times of shock. However, when a shock occurs, the impacts overwhelm the productive households living at or near the poverty line—households normally ineligible for the Hunger Safety Net—resulting in a rapid expansion of humanitarian needs, the erosion of critical household assets, and the potential long-term impoverishment of affected households.

Although multiple government agencies, donors, private sector, and non-governmental organizations have stepped in to deliver essential financing and services to support the lives and livelihoods of people that are productive but poor, a key observation from recent drought response efforts is the glaring deficit in “shock-responsive” programing capable of rapid expansion to provide timely support to households facing drought or other shocks impacting their livelihoods.

The most recent example comes from the last drought. While the need for social protection interventions during the last drought kept increasing as the drought lingered, the existing emergency assistance efforts proved inadequate to cater for all the needy households. Food assistance in kind also proved expensive, especially when centrally procured, even when lower food prices prevailed in some of the worst drought-affected counties. Operational gaps were also observed, with overhead costs for the multiplicity of implementing entities taking away substantial resources that would otherwise translate to an increased number of beneficiaries. The lack of coordination and coherence in the assistance distribution systems resulted in late, duplicative, uneven, inadequate, and in some cases inappropriate types of support.

Also of concern is the fact that most of the existing shock responsive emergency assistance mechanisms are drought-focused, while sources of shocks are diverse, including flooding, pandemics/epidemics, desert locusts and conflict. While progress has been made in early warning for all of these, a coordinated system of protective response remains lacking, and this lack is taking its toll on the social and economic fabric of Kenya.

The Government of Kenya (GOK) is proposing to tackle the challenge of insufficient capacity and resources to systemically respond to and mitigate the negative impacts of significant destabilizing shocks by establishing a Shock Responsive Safety Net System. The Shock Responsive Safety Net System will be housed in the National Drought Management Authority that will enable the country to build on existing capacity and infrastructure for responding to emergencies, e.g., disaster preparedness capacity, early warning systems, the National Drought Emergency Fund, etc. The Shock Responsive Safety Net will not duplicate the Hunger Safety Net but will complement it with a focus on the productive at-risk population that periodically needs assistance when a major shock hits. In doing so, the Shock Responsive Safety Net will help to protect resilience gains.

Recognizing the prominent role that drought related shocks have played, especially in the arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs) of Kenya, a Shock Responsive Safety Net System will have a focus on the ASALs. But the Shock Response Safety Net System will not be limited to the ASALs. The System will enable GOK and its partners to respond to shocks country wide, as needed. The intent is that the system should be both robust and versatile, objectively informed by tracked indicator thresholds, against which triggering for deployment of prepositioned resources occurs. The System should be informed by global best practices and local contextual success stories.

The System, once established, should be able to allow pooling of resources from GOK, development partners and private sector, reduce bureaucracy during implementation, eliminate parallel systems, reduce overhead costs, reduce fragmented delivery modalities, improve targeting of limited resources to reach the intended beneficiaries, and be able to transition beneficiaries from relief assistance to resilience building.

3.0 BACKGROUND AND ASSUMPTIONS

3.1 Background

Kenya’s ASALs are characterized by high susceptibility to climate-related disasters (Drought and Floods) causing substantial socio-economic disruptions. The traditionally non-ASAL counties have also, in recent years, shown tendencies towards increased vulnerability to shocks from extreme climate events, impacting lives and livelihoods. Kenya’s fiscal distress associated with sovereign debt burden constrains the ability of the government to appropriately respond to climate crises and the consequent economic shocks.

While Kenya needs to strengthen its capacity to respond to shocks, significant capacity does exist to build on in creating a Shock Responsive Safety Net System. The National Drought Management Authority (NDMA) is a specialized government agency in the State department for Arid and Semi-Arid Lands, and Regional Development (ASALs & RD) in the Ministry of East African Community, ASALs & RD. It is mandated with providing leadership and coordination of drought risk management and adaptation to climate change and may act alone or in partnership with relevant stakeholders.

The Authority has operational presence in 23 ASAL counties where it has offices and personnel. The Authority has a well-developed institutional framework for drought risk management, including the Kenya Drought Early Warning System, coordination capacity for drought resilience, preparedness, response, and recovery, as well as a financing mechanism managed through web-based business process MIS. It is within the GOK financing framework that the Authority manages the National Drought Emergency Fund, a dedicated government financing vehicle for drought risk management investments. The Drought Emergency Fund has detailed operational guidelines and is backed by legislation. The design of a new Shock Responsive Safety Net System will build on this progress.

3.2 Key Assumptions

The following are critical assumptions that may influence design of a Shock Responsive Safety Net System:

1. Kenya will have 2 to 5 significant shocks (drought, health, economic) in the next 5 years that threaten the lives and livelihoods of millions of Kenyans.
2. Drought shocks are recurring and cyclical and will continue to reoccur over time for the near future.
3. Kenya will not have the resources, by itself, to respond to the emergencies and needs of everyone affected by the shocks. Kenya will continue to need the assistance of the global community (development, humanitarian, private sector, non-governmental) to finance and deliver shock induced emergency related assistance.
4. The Government of Kenya is committed to providing the enabling environment (including leadership, financing, coordination, policy, etc.…) for a Shock Responsive Safety Net System to forecast shocks and manage emergency assistance to save lives and livelihoods.
5. The Government of Kenya has established the NDMA to manage and deliver emergency assistance, established a legal framework, and developed operational guidelines for the National Drought Emergency Fund to support actions to save lives and livelihoods.
6. The global community has and continues to be essential in responding to shocks and meeting emergency needs.
7. Current and past responses to shocks have employed multiple systems by multiple actors that have led to inefficiencies and lack of transparency.
8. Improving the forecasting of shocks, coordination of assistance at national and county level, and delivery of emergency services at national, county and subcounty levels could significantly contribute to stabilizing Kenya’s development trajectory by enhancing timely delivery of emergency services, saving resources (financial, human, physical), and improving resilience of at-risk populations.
9. An effective Shock Response Safety Net System will need the support and buy-in from the Government of Kenya (national and county levels), local communities, global partners, and community (public, private, non-governmental).

4.0 DESIGN PROCESS

As noted above the overall focus of these terms of reference is to prepare a Shock Responsive Safety Net Program. Central to this is a co-creation design process that will be co-led by NDMA on behalf of the GOK and a senior donor official representing non-GOK resource partners. The outcome of this design process will be a Program Document that will guide the establishment, financing, and implementation of a Kenya Shock Responsive Safety Net System.

To guide the design processes and decide on the core elements of the Program, it is proposed that a resource partners group composed of senior government and donor (resource) partners be established. The group will be co-led by NDMA and a donor representative. The resource partners group will be supported by a technical support team contracted under this TOR.

The consultancy work shall be conducted through desk reviews, stakeholder consultations, key informant interviews, quantitative analysis, and modeling. Application of these strategies will be documented, and activity reports filed summarizing findings.

The design process will include several phases, including the following.

4.1 Inception Phase

At the outset (inception) of the design process NDMA will establish a resource partners group to guide the design process. The resource partners group will review the concept paper that provides a vision for a Kenya Shock Responsive Safety Net System. The technical team will meet with the resource partners group to review and agree on a detailed work plan for the technical team to support the design process and timeline. A start up meeting will be held with the resource partners and technical team for the resource partners to agree on assignment’s focus, scope and approach, and detailed work plan.

4.2 Stocktaking Phase

The purpose of the stocktaking phase is to take stock of the broad range of options and actions to deliver emergency assistance that are being used in Kenya and other parts of the world. During the stock taking phase stakeholder consultations will be held; a meeting of local, regional, and international experts will be held to gain an understanding of best practices, tools, and approaches for a Shock Responsive Safety Net System; analysis and modeling will be completed to inform safety net options and priorities. During the stock taking phase resource partners will provide the technical team with an analytical agenda to support program design to guide the technical team’s analytical work.

4.3 Prepare Shock Responsive Safety Net Program Document Phase

The purpose of this phase is to build consensus and co-create a Shock Responsive Safety Net Program. The technical team will produce a document outline and table of contents with input from the resource partners. Resource partners will review evidence and agree on core components of a Shock Responsive Safety Net System, and review and agree on the scope, scale, trigger mechanism and timeline of a Shock Responsive Safety Net Program. During this phase a budget, financing plan and financing modalities will be prepared and reviewed.

4.4 Review, Approval Phase

The purpose of this phase is to provide an opportunity for wider stakeholder review. The program document will be subjected to validation by stakeholder representatives through conduct of one or several validation meetings or workshops as agreed during the inception process. During this phase resource partners will secure the review and input of their government and parent agencies on the Program. Issues will be reviewed by the resource partners group and adjustments made as needed in the program document.

Resource partners will be requested to approve the Shock Responsive Safety Net Program and provide an indication of the type and level of support, if any, they may provide.

4.5 Sensitization Phase

The purpose of this phase is to publicly increase awareness of the Kenya Shock Responsive Safety Net System among constituencies, beneficiaries, technical partners, and stakeholders in general. During this phase individuals and agencies that will have a role in implementing the Shock Responsive Safety Net System will be trained on key elements of the system.

5.0 DETAILED SCOPE OF WORK

The overall objective of this consultancy is to set up a technical support team to provide independent and reliable technical support to design a Kenya Shock Responsive Safety Net System.

The firm or consortium contracted will bring on board individuals from Kenya and abroad with relevant skills to undertake the various tasks required to design a program for establishing Kenya’s Shock Responsive Safety Net System.

USAID, at the request of the GOK, is facilitating the procurement of a technical assistance team through its local partner Strathmore University. Strathmore will provide a grant to an entity based in Kenya that will procure the services and expertise needed for this effort. The local entity will organize a technical support team to support the resource partners group to design the Shock Responsive Safety Net System Program. The technical support team, utilizing local and international experts, will provide independent and reliable technical support including strategic analysis, modeling, stakeholder event planning, and communication services to inform the program design.

The technical support team will also provide secretariat support services for the resource partners group. The technical support team will work over a period during November 2023 – July 2024.

5.1 Tasks to be Completed.

The technical team will carry out the following specific tasks:

1. Facilitate and support the engagement of a resource partners group, led by the Government of Kenya, to shape a shared vision for a Shock Response Safety Net System and guide the process to design and operationalize it.
2. Organize an Experts Meeting to review known tools, approaches, evidence, lessons, and emerging issues to inform the design of a Shock Response Safety Net System.
3. Support NDMA in conducting stakeholder consultations at various levels to obtain input into the design of the Shock Responsive Safety Net System.
4. Review the NDMA existing capacity and systems to implement and manage a Shock Response Safety Net System, including: the National Drought Emergency Fund (NDEF),Drought Contingency Fund (DCF) supported by European Union (EU), the Operational Guidelines for the NDEF, national and county level capacity; and propose adjustments needed to align with and support a Shock Response Safety Net System.
5. Develop a sensitization and training plan to strengthen capacity of national, county and subcounty entities engaged in delivering the Shock Response Safety Net System.
6. Undertake strategic analyses and modeling to address key questions and issues to inform priorities for the Shock Responsive Safety Net System.
7. Establish an institutional strengthening plan for NDMA to implement a Shock Response Safety Net System.
8. Prepare a budget and a sustainable financing plan for the Shock Responsive Safety Net Program
9. Prepare a directory of experts, individuals, and organizations, in Safety Net related issues for use by NDMA and its partners.
10. Prepare a schedule and roadmap to operationalize the proposed Shock Responsive Safety Net Program.
11. Examine how the new system will fit into the objectives and framework of MTP IV of the Kenya Vision 2030, BETA and DRR policies.
12. Prepare a draft program document outline/table of contents (review existing resource partner templates).
13. Draft program document and present to Resource Partners Group for feedback and approval.

5.2 Indicative Questions and Issues to be Addressed:

The following key questions will need to be addressed to inform the design of the Shock Responsive Safety Net System. This is a preliminary list which will need to be finalized and agreed to by the Resource Partners Group during the inception phase.

1. Has the frequency and severity of drought and other shocks increased in the past ten and twenty years ago? How has this impacted the livelihood options for development of Kenya’s drylands? Does it pose new risks?
2. What are the potential risks that a Shock Responsive Safety Net should be designed to respond to? What risks should a shock responsive safety net prioritize?
3. What segment of the population should the Shock Responsive Safety Net System target and focus on to mitigate the impacts of shocks and meet emergency needs?
4. What are the most effective actions and measures to mitigate the impacts of shocks that the Shock Responsive Safety Net should be designed to deliver?
5. What are the triggers to initiate action, and triggers to target diverse types of services that may be needed at the outset, during and the end of an emergency (to inform types of services the safety net could or should be designed to deliver.)
6. What are the necessary monitoring and evaluation frameworks that need to be in to track?
7. What are the existing emergency assistance projects and safety nets operating in Kenya? How will the proposed Shock Responsive Safety Net safety be different? What role can a Shock Responsive Safety Net play to improve coordination and avoid duplication?
8. What are the best practices globally, regionally, locally from existing emergency programs and safety nets to inform the design of Kenya’s Shock Responsive Safety Net System?
9. What changes are needed in the policy and institutional context for a Shock Responsive Safety Net System for Kenya to be effective?
10. What are the potential impacts that various local solutions, tools, and approaches (e.g., cash transfers, index livestock insurance, public works, livestock buy off, et) could have on building resilience and mitigating the negative impacts of shocks? Can these be modeled and compared?
11. What changes to the existing institutional capacity of NDMA and the NDEF at national, county and subcounty level are needed to implement a Shock Responsive Safety Net System?
12. What is the recommended institutional arrangement in terms of business process and timely disbursement of real-time resources?

6.0 DELIVERABLES

The main deliverables from this consultancy are:

1. A GOK policy paper that defines the commitment of the GOK and partners to finance and implement the Shock Responsive Safety Net System.
2. A GOK Program, owned and established by the GOK, which defines the Shock Responsive Safety Net System’s goals and objectives, implementation modalities as well as the attendant GOK and partner financing arrangements, partnership strategy, and accountability modalities.
3. Regulations and operational guidelines for the Shock Responsive Safety Net System. This may entail amendments to reflect on the flexibility on resourcing the NDEF based on PFM Act (2012), and/or creation of new laws and guidelines to allow the system to work.

Sub-deliverables will include the following:

1. Detailed work plan
2. Inception report
3. Final Policy Brief
4. PowerPoint slides of presentations made.
5. An assessment report of the existing systems for addressing shocks.
6. Recommendations for an amended version of the NDEF operational guidelines to align with and support a Shock Response Safety Net System.
7. Stakeholder and expert meeting reports.
8. Analysis of best practices, tools, and approaches.
9. An implementation plan, including a schedule for implementation.
10. A communication, sensitization, and training plan to strengthen capacity of national, county and subcounty entities engaged in delivering the Shock Response Safety Net System.
11. An institutional strengthening plan for NDMA to implement a Shock Response Safety Net System.
12. Operations supporting management information systems.

7.0 FINAL REPORT

The consultant team will prepare a Final Report with support from the Strathmore/USAID Technical Team. The Report will follow the report outline to be agreed during the inception process.

The consultant team will present the assignment outputs and report to USAID and NDMA and key decision makers to receive initial feedback on conclusions and recommendations.

The Team Leader of the Strathmore Technical Team will submit the final Report and Policy Brief to the Management of USAID and NDMA.

8.0 CONSULTANT TEAM PROFILE AND LEVEL OF EFFORT

The organization providing technical services should have or be able to tap experienced experts to deliver services and analysis on a broad range of technical issues relevant to the design of a Shock Responsive Safety Net System. In line with the approach to develop a Shock Responsive Safety Net System for Kenya, the technical team structure and members should be agreed to by USAID, NDMA and Strathmore University.

8.1 Consulting Team Profile

The Technical Team must have access to professionals with the following set of qualifications/skills/experiences:

Team Leader Skills

1. Excellent analytical and people skills, including ability to collaborate with diverse stakeholders and to reconcile differing institutional perspectives and priorities. Demonstrate in-depth experience of project cycle management including monitoring and evaluation.
2. In-depth understanding of dryland areas in Kenya and the regional context, including economic, social, and climate-related aspects.
3. In-depth understanding of the intergovernmental mode of government and public sector policy and planning in Kenya, specifically the policy and institutional set-up relating to ASALs development and emergency assistance systems.

Event Planning and Facilitation Skills

1. Experience in organizing and facilitating collaborative and inclusive review of complex multi-stakeholder consultation and planning mechanisms.
2. Communication and editing skills to support preparation of papers, policy briefs and presentations using multimedia tools, posters, charts, web pages, etc.

Technical Experts

Technical Experts should have strong qualitative and quantitative analytical skills, including demonstrated understanding of the causal-effect methodology of research, econometric modeling, use of geographic information systems, and other relevant analytical skills. They should also have demonstrated understanding of the social, economic, and environmental aspects of the Kenya ASALs. An indicative list of technical experts include:

1. Social safety nets,
2. Relevant cross-cutting areas, including specifically gender, youth, and social inclusion,
3. Climate mitigation/adaptation,
4. Private sector engagement in economic development,
5. Livestock systems,
6. Financial and economic analysis.

Contracting and Financial Management

• Ability to contract with individuals with expertise appropriate for various tasks.
• Ability to prepare budgets and do financial planning.

8.2 Level of Effort

Key items that will need LOE and need to be budgeted for include facilitation for Resource Partners Group meetings; meetings and consultations; international experts; local technical team, including team leader; preparing and printing documents and presentations; the detailed work plan details and timelines completing the various tasks.

Kenya Shock Responsive Safety Net System Design

Estimated Level of Effort Table

Shock Responsive Safety Net Process

Level of Effort

Please refer to the table in this link: https://sbs.strathmore.edu/careers/

9.0 TIMEFRAME

The overall estimated timeframe for the implementation of the consultancy is 140 working days during November 2023 – July 2024. The Consultant will provide a detailed schedule and work plan during the inception process.

10. BUDGET FOR CONSULTANCY

Costs for the consultancy shall be borne by USAID covering the time of the inception activities to submission of final outputs. The budget may be subject to revision midstream in case of unforeseen justifiable cost changes, but in any case, the cost increase should not exceed 25%.

11. EXPRESSIONS OF INTERESTSubmit a technical proposal detailing the consultant’s approach to the assignment, financial proposal, CV(s) of key personnel and KRA PIN.In addition to the above, a firm must submit; Certificate of Incorporation/ Business Registration, Tax Compliance Certificate, Business permit, CR 12 Form, KRA PIN, and the firm shall not be sanctioned or block-listed by any government or institution.

Potential consultant(s) must submit their proposals and mandatory attachments to USAID Strategic Partnership Program on Careers SBS careerssbs@strathmore.edu by 14th November 2023 at 5:30 PM EAT quoting “Shock Responsive Safety Net System for Kenya” in the email subject line.

For further information or clarification please contact; Daniel Nyoro Email: dnyoro@strathmore.edu.

External Reference: https://strathmore.edu/vacancies/ or https://sbs.strathmore.edu/careers/