Terms of Reference (TOR) for Post Drought Disaster Assessment

Background

Kenya has experienced an increase in frequency and intensity of drought episodes since independence. In 2021-2023, the country experienced the worst drought episode in four decades, with five consecutive failed rain seasons. At the peak of the drought, eight of the twenty-three counties where NDMA has established offices were in the drought ALARM phase and another thirteen were in ALERT phase. Moreover, 4.4 million people in the ASALs and a further 0.5 million people in the traditionally non-ASAL counties faced acute food insecurity and required immediate humanitarian assistance. Malnutrition rate among children aged below 5 years was about 970,000 while 142,000 pregnant and breastfeeding women required urgent life-saving treatment for malnutrition (SRA Report, 2023)

In response to the ravaging drought, the Government of Kenya (National and Counties) and Non-State Agencies invested a huge amount of resources to save lives and livelihoods. As of March 2023, the Government had invested over Ksh. 32 billion, and projections showed that another Ksh. Forty-nine billion was required to cover the period March – October 2023. The long rains season (March-April-May) set in as projected by the Kenya Meteorological Department across most parts of the country marking the end of the prolonged 2021-2023 drought episode, triggering the need for a study to assess the impact of the drought episode as well as an estimation of resources required for drought recovery and resilience building in readiness for future drought episodes.

The Government through the National Drought Management Authority (NDMA) is commissioning this assessment. The Authority is the government agency mandated by law to coordinate all matters relating to drought risk management in Kenya. The execution of the study will be a collaborative activity involving the Government, development partners and other non- state actors.

Objective of the Assessment

The overall objective of the proposed study is to assess the impact of the 2021-2023 drought episode. The specific objectives are to:

1. Assess the damages and losses resulting from the drought.
2. Estimate the value of averted damages resulting from investments in both a) systems and capacity to forecast and manage drought and b) household drought resilience building.
3. Estimate the post drought resource requirements for full recovery and reconstruction.

Methodology

Building on the foundations of the Kenya 2012 Post Disaster Needs Assessment (PDNA) this study will use a similar approach and methodology that combines two methodologies: the Damage, Loss and Needs Assessment (DaLa) methodology developed by the United Nations Economic Commission and the World Bank, and the Human Recovery Needs Assessment (HRNA) methodology developed by developed by the United Nations. The consultancy work shall be conducted through desk reviews, stakeholder consultations, key informant interviews, focus group discussions, administration of questionnaires and semi-structured interviews, purposive workshops/write-shops. Validation workshops will be organized to share preliminary findings with stakeholders for input. Application of these strategies will be documented, and activity reports filed outlining well-informed actionable recommendations. The methodology will be a consultative process involving stakeholders at both National and County levels. Economic valuation and analysis will be conducted to assess the losses, damages, and needs.

The following sectors will be covered in the assessment: agriculture, livestock, fisheries, agroindustries, health, nutrition, education, energy, water & sanitation, tourism, forestry, wildlife, environment, gender and disaster risk reduction.

Terms of reference

The terms of reference for the consultant are to conduct the following tasks:

1. Desk study on various approaches to Post Drought Disaster Assessment.
2. Develop and administer questionnaires to collect primary data in 10 sampled drought affected Counties.
3. Generate recommendations to recovery strategies and associated sectoral costs.
4. Consultations with various stakeholders.
5. Conduct thorough economic valuation of various losses and damages associated with the 2021-2023 drought episode.
6. Draft Post 2021-2023 Drought Disaster Assessment report.
7. Present the draft report to stakeholders for validation.
8. Produce the final Post Drought Disaster Assessment report.
9. Write a policy brief based on the key findings and recommendations.
10. Prepare a dissemination framework to various stakeholders.

Specific Tasks

Prepare an inception report that elaborates:

1. The consultant’s understanding of the terms of reference.
2. A comprehensive methodology of delivering the work efficiently.
3. Envisaged challenges and proposed mitigation measures.
4. Proposed activity schedule with clearly defined milestones and budget.
5. A proposed outline of the Post Drought Disaster Assessment report.
6. Detailed design of facilitation and consultation protocol including the various levels.
7. Detailed process planning including field movement plan.

Draft the Post Drought Disaster Assessment report:

1. Review reference documents and undertake initial analysis to understand the context of drought disasters in Kenya and highlighting the indicators of interest.
2. Prepare stakeholder consultations tools (semi-structured interviews, discussion guides).
3. Conduct stakeholder consultations guided by the approved consultation plan to collect reliable data/information and solicit stakeholder perspectives on Drought Disasters and climate change.
4. Analyze the data/information collected.
5. Prepare the draft Post Drought Disaster Assessment report.
6. Organize Stakeholders validation forums.
7. Facilitate the validation forums of the initial draft Post Drought Disaster Assessment report by stakeholders at various levels (National and County).
8. Prepare the final Post Drought Disaster Assessment report incorporating comments from the validation forums for approval.
9. Prepare a policy brief for submission to the Ministry of East African Community (EAC), the ASALs and Regional Development and the Council of Governors (CoG).

Timeline

The overall estimated timeframe for the implementation of the consultancy is 60 working days during January 2024, and be completed by April 2024. The Consultant will provide a detailed schedule and work plan during the inception process.

Deliverables

1. Inception report – due in two weeks after signing of the contract.
2. Draft Post Drought Disaster Assessment report based on Secondary literature with clear gaps to be filled from primary – due in one month since the approval of the inception report.
3. Draft Post Drought Disaster Assessment report for validation with gaps filled – due in two months after approval of the secondary information based draft report.
4. Final Post Drought Disaster Assessment report – due in one month after validation.
5. Policy Brief – due in two weeks after the acceptance of the PDDAR

Qualifications of the Consultant

The firm/institutions should have experienced experts on climate – related shocks and related fields. It must have professionals with the following set of qualifications/experiences:

1. In-depth understanding of drylands areas in Kenya and in the regional context, including economic, social, and climate-related aspects.
2. Lead expert – Natural Resource Economist.
3. Competencies in key relevant technical areas e.g. rangeland management.
4. Competencies pertaining to relevant cross-cutting areas, including specifically gender, youth, and social inclusion; private sector engagement in economic development; and other cross-cutting considerations.
5. Demonstrate successful previous delivery of similar tasks in Kenya or comparable countries.
6. Demonstrate capacity to conduct economic valuation of loss and damage associated with disasters/drought.
7. Experience in facilitating collaborative and inclusive review of complex multi- stakeholder consultation and planning mechanisms.
8. Strong qualitative and quantitative analytical skills, including demonstrated understanding of the causal-effect methodology of research.
9. Excellent analytical and people skills, including ability to collaborate with diverse stakeholders and to reconcile differing institutional perspectives and priorities.

Budget For Consultancy

Costs for the consultancy shall be borne by USAID covering the time of the inception activities to submission of final outputs. The budget may be subject to revision midstream in case of unforeseen justifiable cost changes, but in any case, the cost increase should not exceed 25%.